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Unemployment Rates (not seasonally adjusted)
Utica-Rome MSA (Oneida and Herkimer Counties)
May 2010 |
April 2010 |
May 2009 |
6.9% |
7.2% |
7.3% |
The unemployment rate declined slightly from 7.3 percent in May 2009 to 6.9 percent in May 2010. Although down from a year ago, the jobless rate is much higher than the rate of 5.0 percent recorded two years ago in May 2008, before the onset of the local downturn.
Following the seasonal trend, the jobless rate declined from April 2010 to May 2010. In the past 10 years, the unemployment rate declined 8 times, rose once and remained unchanged once from April to May.
Due to expected seasonal declines in school employment and an influx of high school and college job seekers, the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from May to June. However, the change in the jobless rate is not expected to change more than a few tenths of a percentage point. In the past 10 years, from May to June, the jobless rate has increased 6 times, declined 2 times, and remained unchanged twice.Net change +600
Percent change +0.5%
For the 12-month period ending May 2010, the nonfarm job count in the Utica-Rome metro area increased 600, or 0.5 percent, to 132,800. Job gains occurred in government (+700), educational and health services (+400), leisure and hospitality (+100), other services (+100) and trade, transportation and utilities (+100). Losses were posted in manufacturing (-500), financial activities (-100), information (-100) and natural resources, mining and construction (-100).
Gains in federal government (+1,100), mostly due to Census hiring, offset losses in state (-100) and local (-300) government. State government losses occurred at state hospitals. Local government losses occurred in local government administration.
From May 2009 to May 2010, the total nonfarm job count in the Utica-Rome metro area increased 600, or 0.5 percent -- second only to the Ithaca metro area (+0.6 percent) in percentage increase over the past 12 months. Over-the-year job gains should continue if normal seasonal job gains take place in the next few months.
Focus on the Mohawk Valley
The current national recession, which officially started in December 2007, finally arrived with a vengeance in the Mohawk Valley region (Fulton, Herkimer, Montgomery, Oneida, Otsego and Schoharie counties) in the third quarter of 2008. This article reviews how the Mohawk Valley is weathering the latest recessionary storm, how certain key industries have fared, and how this latest slump compares to previous ones in the region.
According to data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, the economic downturn did not hit the Mohawk Valley until summer 2008. During the first and second quarters of 2008, the region’s total job count had been running 400-500 above year-earlier levels. However, the region experienced a reversal of fortune in third quarter 2008 as the regional employment count fell 760 below year-ago levels. Over-the-year job losses in the region worsened significantly in fourth quarter 2008 (-1,270) and first quarter 2009 (-4,220).
How Industries Fared During This Recession
Not surprisingly, manufacturing has been hit the hardest of any sector in the region; employment fell by 1,580 between 2008 and 2009. (Note: In this analysis, 2009 refers to the first quarter of 2009 and 2008 refers to the first quarter of 2008.) Factory job reductions were widespread, but concentrated in printing and related support activities, primary metals, wood products and machinery. In 2009, the region’s sole bright spot in manufacturing was transportation equipment, which grew to its highest jobs level since 2001. Over the longer term, the region’s manufacturers have suffered significant job losses, with sector employment dropping 36.6 percent between 2000 and 2009.
The trade, transportation and utilities sector experienced the second steepest set of job cuts (-1,030) in the region between 2008 and 2009. Most of the decline occurred in retail trade (-870), due in part to losses at motor vehicles and parts dealers brought on by weakened demand for new cars. Other retail job shrinkage was centered in building material and garden supply stores; health and personal care stores; and gasoline stations. Employment drops in warehousing and storage also contributed to the decline; this industry peaked in 2007 following expansion at the numerous distribution centers in the region.
Over the 2008-2009 timeframe, professional and business services suffered the third largest employment decline (-790) of any sector in the Mohawk Valley. More than half of this sector’s drop occurred in temporary help agencies (-410) -- typically among the first to contract after the onset of a downturn in the economy.
Natural resources, mining and construction (-540) and financial activities (-460) also experienced relatively large employment shrinkage between 2008 and 2009. The job trimming in the former sector was centered in specialty trade contractors and construction of buildings. The loss in the latter was due in part to the closing of the Federal Reserve’s check processing facility in Oneida County, as well as employment drops at commercial banking and insurance companies.
The Mohawk Valley’s educational and health services sector has been virtually “recessionproof” during this downturn. With almost 39,000 employees in the first quarter of 2009 and total wages of $1.35 billion paid during the trailing 12-month period, it is one of the largest sectors in the region. Moreover, it was the only sector where employment grew (+740) between 2008 and 2009. Over the 2000-2009 period, jobs in this sector increased every year, growing by a total of 6,730 or 21.1 percent. Long-term projections for the 2006-2016 suggest this trend will continue; sector employment is expected to increase by 13.3 percent over this 10-year span.
Not Back to the Future
There are several differences between this downturn and the 2001 recession. First, this recession has been much more severe; total jobs dropped by 4,220 (-2.2 percent) between 2008 and 2009. During the last recession (2001-2002), the local job loss was 2,660 (-1.4 percent).
A second important difference is that in 2001 manufacturing dominated local job losses. From 2001 to 2002, the job count in manufacturing fell by 2,850, or 10.5 percent, as factory job losses actually exceeded total losses in the region -- gains in other sectors offset some of the manufacturing job losses. However, during the current downturn, manufacturing losses represent less than 40 percent of the region’s total job decline.
Looking ahead, recovery in the region’s labor market will likely lag any advances in overall economic conditions. However, if the national economic picture improves, the outlook for the Mohawk Valley region should gradually follow.
For more information on expansions and contractions at businesses located in Herkimer, Madison and Oneida counties please visit: http://www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/moh/mohec.shtm
Information compiled by the Labor
Market Analysts of the
Division of Research and Statistics
New York State Department of Labor
Mohawk Valley Regional Office
(315) 793-2282
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